Thursday, August 11, 2016

What to Watch - Aug. 11

During the day today we have the start of the men's golf competition, some men's and women's beach volleyball, judo and then the men's volleyball team taking on Brazil tonight in primetime.

Tonight, we'll see if Simone Biles can make it 2-for-2 in gold medals in the women's all-around final. She's as much of a favorite to win as the U.S. was for the team gold medal. You've likely watched her by now and understand that the hype is real. She can easily win this even with mistakes but she rarely even makes those. A U.S. gymnast has won the gold in the last three straight Olympics. Biles looks to join that club with Carly Patterson (2004), Nastia Liukin (2008) and Gabby Douglas (2012).

Four years ago, Aly Raisman was robbed of a bronze in the all-around final. She tied for third but, for whatever reason, they break ties for medals. To break the tie they throw out the lowest score of the the four events for each person and then average the other three. Aliya Mustafina, who Raisman tied with, had fallen on beam and, lucky for her, that score was dropped and Raisman got bumped off the podium. She sites this as one of the motivating reasons to comeback for Rio. Now, Raisman is better than she was in London, even at age 22, and qualified in second with Mustafina in sixth. Raisman has also been so solid at these games and I expect that to continue. Tonight could very well end with the Americans going 1-2 for the second time in the last three Olympics.

The biggest swimming race of the night will be the men's 200m individual medley. This race will be Phelps vs. Lochte 4.0. Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte have traded off being the best in the world in this event for the last 12 years and they went 1-2 in the semifinals, respectively.

Phelps is the three-time reigning Olympic champion in the event and also the Olympic record holder. He's never lost this race in the Olympics. Phelps has certainly been busy in Rio with a lot on his schedule but that's never stopped him before. While he also has the 100m fly prelims and semifinal today, he knows how to manage it and get himself ready.

Lochte has won four world championship titles in the event and is the world record holder. He also has the second ever fastest time in this race as well. He won the race at last year's world championship (Phelps did not compete at worlds in 2015). In the last three Olympics, Lochte has gone silver, bronze and silver in the event. Lochte is well rested having only two events on his schedule in Rio. He helped USA to gold in the 4x200m free relay and this is his only individual event.

While previously the Phelps vs. Lochte rivalry was always chalked up as "friendly," you never actually believed it. However, both seemed to have changed a lot personally and grown up as they are both now in their 30s. It does legitimately seem like they have a friendship now and they are racing each other for fun. This final will likely be the last time we ever see these two race each other. The end of an era for sure.

Oh yeah, there are six other people swimming in the race too but they're kind of just along for the ride. There are three medals to be had in the race so someone else will be on the podium. Brazil's Thiago Pereira qualified third and will be the crowd favorite, while Japan's Kosuke Hagino qualified fourth and won the 400m version of this event.

Last night we had the men's 100 free and tonight is the women's 100m free. This event is stacked! For Australia, you have the sister duo of Cate and Bronte Campbell. Bronte won the world championship last year, while Cate won the semis and set a new Olympic record. For the USA, there's Simone Manuel, who won her semifinal heat and qualified third overall, and Abby Weitzel, who qualified in eighth. Pretty much anyone has a chance to medal. This also includes Canada's Penny Oleksiak, Sweden's Sarah Sjostrom and Netherland's Ranomi Kromowidjojo.

The men's 200m backstroke is shaping up to be a competitive race between several swimmers. U.S. and college teammates Ryan Murphy and Jacob Pebly have looked good in both the prelims and semifinal. Murphy won the 100m back and won his heat in the semis, qualifying fourth overall. Pebly was in the faster semifinal and qualified in third. Russia's Evgeny Rylov qualified in first and Australia's Mitch Larkin earned the second spot.

There's also the women's 200m breaststroke final. A U.S. swimmer has won gold in this event for the last three straight Olympics but that streak ends as no American qualified for the final. So if anyone still cares about the race, Australia's Taylor McKeown was the top swimmer in the semifinal. She might win but NBC probably won't show it for us to find out.

The semifinal races tonight are the men's 50m free (Nathan Adrian and Anthony Ervin), the women's 200m back (Missy Franklin and Maya Dirado) and the men's 100m fly (Phelps and Tom Shields).

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